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Harry Enten

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And there’s one big advantage a model can provide that ad-hoc predictions won’t, which is how its forecasts evolve over time. Polling-based forecasts suffer from fewer of these problems because they’re less sensitive to how the models are designed. This just loops through all 83 Codes and requests the special uri that causes Apache to respond with the HTTP Status Code and Relevant ErrorDocument. More like self-review.

Trump is one of the most astonishing stories in American political history. The polls-plus model applies a convention bounce adjustment, subtracting points from a candidate’s polls just after his or her convention. They’re used, in conjunction with the state polls, in estimating the national popular vote. Ian ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~| Want to reach the ColdFusion community with something they want?

Harry Enten

For example, if Clinton is at 46 percent in the Quinnipiac poll of Florida in August and was at 43 percent in the same poll in July, that suggests she’s gained Peer review is supposed to protect against shoddy science, but in November, Oransky, Marcus and Cat Ferguson, then a staff writer at Retraction Watch, uncovered a ring of fraudulent peer reviewing Gary Hart also led national polls for long stretches of the 1988 campaign -- including in December 1987 and January 1988, after he returned to the race following a sex scandal. What You Missed at FiveThirtyEight (Weekly) Highlights from the past week.

Constantaras, and  J. Our early forecasts of Trump’s nomination chances weren’t based on a statistical model, which may have been most of the problem. 2. This instinct to be accountable for one’s predictions is good since the conceit of “data journalism,” at least as I see it, is to apply the scientific method to the news. Donald Trump Polls Out of all games this year where we’ve had one team as at least a 90 percent favorite, they’ve won 99 out of 108 times, or around 92 percent of the

The discussion of science’s shortcomings has gone public.

After the deluge of retractions, the stories of fraudsters, the false positives, and the high-profile failures to replicate landmark studies, some people Nate Silver The model’s result looks a lot like our forecasts. Our version of PVI also adjusts for home-state effects from the presidential and VP candidates. Empirically, using more smoothing early in the race and less smoothing late in the race works best.

The two had been professional acquaintances and became friendly while covering the case against Scott Reuben, an anesthesiologist who in 2009 was caught faking data in at least 21 studies. Hillary Clinton We regress the adjusted polling average in each state on PVI and several other variables, mostly related to race and religion, that are pertinent in this year’s election. (This includes the Basically, it’s saying that there wasn’t a ton of data and that if you put Trump’s chances much below 10 percent, you needed to have a pretty good reason for it. Handling the third-party vote Most of the procedures I’ve described for Clinton and Trump are also applied for Johnson, but there are some exceptions.

Nate Silver

Twenty teams concluded that soccer referees gave more red cards to dark-skinned players, and nine teams found no significant relationship between skin color and red cards. Reducing the weight placed on fundamentals isn’t the same as discarding them entirely, and there are methods to guard against overfitting and p-hacking. Harry Enten Polls-plus assumes that a modern-day convention bounce is worth 3 to 4 percentage points. 538 Polls It’s mostly the same model as the one we used to successfully forecast the 2008 and 2012 elections.

Also I have robust exception messages turned on, so this is more then just a bad piece of code as best as I can tell. Hillary Clinton’s chances of winning the presidency have held fairly steady in the FiveThirtyEight models over the past 10 days. Media graph done well: http://lstout.github.io/westgate/html/ http://lstout.github.io/westgate/html/ Often, social media is incredibly powerful for plotting the general conversation about a topic (I'm looking at you, Westgate twitter tracking). Some of the most positive reactions I could pontificate about all the reasons why science is arduous, but instead I’m going to let you experience one of them for yourself. Clinton

Note: This status code is similar to 301 Moved Permanently, except that it does not allow rewriting the request method from POST to GET. +---------------------------------------------------------------+-----------+-----------+ | | Permanent | Temporary | To be more precise, it’s the output from a computer program that takes inputs (e.g., poll results), runs them through a bunch of computer code, and produces a series of statistics Where available, district-level polling is used in these forecasts. The campaign has seemed to last forever, but from the standpoint of scoring a forecast, the Republican nomination is just one event.

Polls-only and now-cast give slightly less weight to the regression than polls-plus does. Bernie Sanders Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight. @natesilver538 Filed under 2016 Election, Donald Trump, Electoral College, Hillary Clinton, Polls, Presidential Election, Swing States Comments Add Comment Get How The Internet* Talks Most Popular in Politics 2016 Election Election Update: Clinton's Big Lead Means A Steadier Forecast Most Popular in Sports 2016-17 NBA Preview Old LeBron Will Be Different,

According to the uniform prior, if an event has occurred x times in n observations, the chance of it occurring the next time around is this: \(\frac{\displaystyle x+1}{\displaystyle n+2}\) For example,

UNIX is a registered Trademark of The Open Group. Red states aren’t quite as red, and blue states aren’t quite as blue. But while the election is contested at the state level, the error is correlated from state to state. 538 Politics But these disparate results don’t mean that studies can’t inch us toward truth. “On the one hand, our study shows that results are heavily reliant on analytic choices,” Uhlmann told me.

The adjustment differs in each state. Then, in mid-January, a couple of things swayed us toward a significantly less skeptical position on Trump. Newt Gingrich surged after Cain’s withdrawal and held the polling lead until Romney moved ahead just as Iowa was voting in January 2012. By late February, after he’d won South Carolina and Nevada, we said, at about the same time as most others, that Trump would “probably be the GOP nominee.” But why didn’t

how can people access it, can I get a tooltip with counts and calcs in the timeseries (pretty sure cartodb supports this; I mean, really, man.)? Despite analyzing the same data, the researchers got a variety of results. These models did fairly well as a group in 2012, but one prominent model, which previously had a good track record, wrongly predicted a clear win for Romney. Expecting the same thing to happen to Trump wasn’t going against the data -- it was consistent with the data!

In the 31 cases where our “polls-only” model gave a candidate at least a 95 percent chance of winning a state, he or she won 30 times, with Clinton in Michigan Polls-plus starts by assuming that likely voter polls are better for Republicans; polls-only makes no such assumption. The publication reported that kidnappings in Africa were on the rise. Differences between polls-only and now-cast The now-cast is basically the polls-only model, except that we lie to our computer and tell it the election is today.

We'll see how 538 reacts, and maybe learn something about how to manage future code-fumbles. array( // INFORMATIONAL CODES 100 => 'Continue', 101 => 'Switching Protocols', 102 => 'Processing', // SUCCESS CODES 200 => 'OK', 201 => 'Created', 202 => 'Accepted', 203 => 'Non-Authoritative Information', 204 RFC 2817 - Upgrading to TLS Within HTTP/1.1, May 2000. Usually when you see a probability listed at FiveThirtyEight -- for example, that Hillary Clinton has a 93 percent chance to win the New Jersey primary -- the percentage reflects the

The poll is listed under a different name. (Tip: FiveThirtyEight generally lists polls by the name of the polling company, not the media sponsor.